Daily reading · 26 July 2026

Pakistan’s economy is finding its footing, but the cost of living keeps climbing and human development lags.

Inflation is back in double digits and wheat flour costs 72% more than a year ago, even as remittances hit a record and reserves rebuild.

Generated from 31 indicators · PBS · SBP · World Bank · UNICEF · every claim is sourced

Petrol▲ daily pricing

Atta 20kg▲ +71.8% y/y

Inflation▼ −0.6 pt m/m

USD/PKR▼ firmer

KIBOR 6M— stable

Lahore PM2.5▲ 18× WHO

Reserves▲ rebuilding

Remittances▲ record FY26

Fact check · at a glance

The national report card

4on track2mixed5off track5critical

EconomyMixed

% YoY

Inflation

Back in double digits after a brief lull, but easing for a second month.

easing −0.6 pt m/m

EconomyMixed

GDP growth FY26

The fastest pace in four years — yet still short of the 4.2% target.

+0.5 pt vs FY25

EconomyOn track

bn (SBP)

FX reserves

Rebuilt well off crisis lows; an S&P upgrade to 'B' followed on 22 Jul.

rebuilding

EconomyOn track

Remittances FY26

An all-time record — the single steadiest support under the economy.

+8.6% YoY · record

DigitalOn track

IT exports FY26

Record year and the clearest growth story anywhere in the data.

+20.6% YoY · record

Cost of livingCritical

% YoY

Wheat flour, 20kg

The sharpest price shock on the board — a staple 72% dearer in a year.

₨2,579 a bag

Cost of livingOff track

% YoY

Electricity tariff

Reform-driven and fiscally necessary, but a brutal load on households.

Q1 tariff

PovertyCritical

Poverty rate

Nearly half live below the $4.20/day line — higher partly because the line was raised.

line rebased

JobsOff track

Unemployment

Ticked up — job creation isn't keeping pace with a young, growing workforce.

up from 6.3%

EducationCritical

Learning poverty

Four in five ten-year-olds cannot read and understand a simple story.

≈ unchanged

HealthOff track

Under-5 stunting

Two in five under-fives are stunted — a penalty that lasts a lifetime.

survey ageing

HealthOff track

per 100k

Maternal mortality

Falling slowly, but Balochistan (298) is nearly double Punjab (157).

slow decline

HealthOn track

YTD

Polio cases 2026

Down from 74 in 2024 — one of only two countries left, but close to the line.

3 vs 74 in 2024

SafetyCritical

in 2025

Terrorist attacks

The deadliest year in roughly a decade — concentrated in KP and Balochistan.

+34% YoY

EnvironmentCritical

µg/m³

Lahore PM2.5

Roughly eighteen times the WHO guideline — a chronic public-health emergency.

≈ 18× WHO

InfrastructureOff track

Safely-managed water

Barely half the country has safely-managed drinking water at home.

over half without

Each verdict is an editorial assessment of how well or badly Pakistan is doing — sitting on top of a sourced, evidence-graded value. Click any number to interrogate the reading. The verdict is our judgement; the number never is.

Foresight · signals to watch

What's near the line

4alert3watch1steady

Debt service, share of budget
Public finance
42.9%steadyAlert
Inflation vs. target band
Economy
11.1%improvingAlert
Militant violence trend
Safety
699 attacks (2025)worseningAlert
Monsoon / flood risk
Environment
Emergency activeworseningAlert
Reserve import cover
Economy
≈3.3 monthsimprovingWatch
Food-price acceleration
Cost of living
9.4% YoYworseningWatch
Polio toward elimination
Health
3 cases YTDimprovingWatch
Rupee stability
Economy
₨278.9 / $steadySteady

Read every signal & its threshold →

National condition

Six domains

How scores are built →

Click a wedge — its fill radius is the score, hatched means no official series exists yet. The hub shows the average across scored domains.

Domain scores are illustrative composites shown before any single national score — click one to read its formula. Where no official series exists (institutions & safety), the panel says so rather than guessing.

Province by province

National averages hide the gaps

Lens

Administrative units as reported by PBS · boundaries indicative, not an authority on territorial status. Azad Jammu & Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan are shown hatched — present but not covered in this snapshot.

Province probe— hover a province

Sweep the map to read each province, or click to lock. The four covered provinces plus Islamabad carry real provincial figures; national averages hide large gaps between them.

Ranked

The provincial league table

Overall = average rank across all metrics below (1 = best) — a composite rank, not a composite score, since these metrics are measured in different years.

Province	Overall
🏅Islamabad Capital Territory	1.0	32.6%	84%	—	82%
Punjab	1.8	36.4%	68%	157 per 100k	75%
Sindh	3.5	45.5%	58%	224 per 100k	34%
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa	3.5	40%	58%	165 per 100k	30%
Balochistan	4.3	46.6%	49%	298 per 100k	44%

Islamabad's small, wealthy, largely urban population make it an outlier rather than a fair comparison to the four provinces — shown for completeness, not as a "best-run province" claim.

Evidence, connected

What actually drives stunting

Larger node · thicker line = stronger driver

Drivers, ranked by strength of evidence

Stunting isn't one failure — it's six overlapping ones. Household poverty is the strongest single driver and it compounds nearly every other: cheaper diets, worse water, less antenatal care. Hover a driver to see the documented mechanism.

Balance of the day

What improved · what is under pressure

Improving

Remittances hit an all-time high$41.6bn · +8.6%
IT exports set a record$4.6bn · +20.6%
FX reserves are rebuilding$17.2bn
Polio cases keep falling3 vs 74 in 2024
Growth is the fastest in four years3.7%

Under pressure

Wheat flour is far dearer+71.8% y/y
Measured poverty rose47.9%
Lahore's air is hazardous88.9 µg/m³
Electricity tariffs jumped+49% y/y
Joblessness ticked up7.1%

Accountability · claims vs. data

We check what they claim

Misleading
“Street crime in the province fell by 70–80% in 2025.”
Provincial government (Punjab). Directionally real, wildly overstated — the matched-period change was closer to ~2%.
Overstated
“Inflation has been brought durably under control.”
Official economic messaging (2025). The 2025 low was real but temporary; inflation was back in double digits within a year.
Misleading
“The security situation is steadily improving.”
Government security messaging. Independent trackers record 2025 as the deadliest year in roughly a decade.
Unverifiable
“Foreign-exchange reserves have been rebuilt to about $25 billion.”
S&P rating rationale, echoed in official messaging. Reserves are genuinely rebuilding, but the $25.3bn figure and SBP's own $17.2bn haven't been reconciled.

See the full claim-check ledger →

Accountability · commitments vs. outcomes

Promises kept and missed

Not met
Deliver 4.2% GDP growth in FY2025-26.
Federal Budget FY2025-26 · Finance Division. Missed — the fastest growth in four years, but short of the goal.
Target 4.2% → 3.7% actual
Not met
Collect Rs14.131 trillion in FBR tax revenue in FY2025-26.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb · FBR. Missed by ~Rs1.1tr; even the twice-reduced IMF target was missed on a net basis.
Rs14.13tr target → ~Rs13.0tr
Not met
Raise annual exports toward $60bn under the 'Uraan Pakistan' plan (2024–29).
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Off track — exports fell ~6% rather than rising toward the target.
FY26 interim $35.3bn → $30.1bn actual (goal $60bn by 2029)
Not met
Street crime in Punjab was cut by 70–80% in 2025.
Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif (Punjab). Not supported — the province's own police data showed an overall change near 2%.
Claimed 70–80% → ~2% actual
Partial
Keep inflation within the 5–7% medium-term target band.
Government economic framework · State Bank of Pakistan. Mixed — the full-year average held near target, but the band is currently breached.
Band 5–7% · FY26 avg ~7% · Jun 11.1%
Partial
Raise the tax-to-GDP ratio toward 13.5% (near-term push to ~11%).
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif · Uraan plan / FBR. Real progress, still well short — the ratio rose to ~10.6%, below the 13.5% goal.
→ 10.6% (FY25), filers 4.5m → 7.2m

See all 19 tracked promises →

Accountability · the measurement gap

What Pakistan stopped counting

Demographic & Health Survey · PDHS8 yrs · 3 overdue
Official national poverty headcount · HIES7 yrs · 4 overdue
Maternal Mortality Survey · PMMS7 yrs · 1 overdue
National Nutrition Survey · NNS8 yrs · 1 overdue

Why these gaps matter →

The AI desk

Read the day, then ask

The morning briefing

21 Jul 2026, 06:00 PKT

Pakistan's economy is finding its footing. Growth reached 3.7% in FY2026, the fastest in four years; remittances hit a record $41.6 billion and IT exports a record $4.6 billion, while reserves rebuild toward $17.2 billion.

But the cost of living keeps climbing. Headline inflation is back in double digits at 11.1%, wheat flour costs 71.8% more than a year ago, and electricity tariffs are up about 49% — even as sugar, chicken and pulses have fallen more than 15%.

Human development remains the weakest link. Measured poverty is 47.9%, four in five ten-year-olds cannot read a simple story, 40.2% of under-fives are stunted, and Lahore's air sits near eighteen times the WHO guideline.

GDP · FY26Remittances · SBPCPI · PBS Jun 2026SPI · flourLearning poverty · WB

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