Accountability · commitments vs. outcomes
This tracker scores documented, measurable public commitments against what the data shows. It attributes each to the named office-holder where a source supports it, or to the responsible office (a budget, an IMF-programme benchmark) — not to invented quotes. A "not met" verdict records a missed target, not an accusation of bad faith, and kept commitments are recorded alongside the missed ones.
Federal Budget FY2025-26 · Finance Division
The FY26 budget set a 4.2% growth target; provisional real growth was 3.7% — a genuine four-year high, and above IMF (3.6%), ADB (3.5%) and World Bank (3.0%) forecasts, but below the government's own target.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb · FBR
The headline FBR target was revised down twice with the IMF (to ~Rs12.98tr). Net collection came in around Rs13.0tr — roughly Rs975bn under the revised target and ~Rs1.1tr under the original. The government publicly praised hitting the reduced target; independent press framed it as a shortfall.
“Under this plan, we will focus on growing our industry, commerce, information technology, trade, investment and find new markets for our products across [the] world.”
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
The five-year plan targets $60bn in exports by 2028-29. Eighteen months in, FY26 exports fell ~5.97% to $30.1bn, missing even that year's ~$35.3bn interim target by ~$5.2bn — moving away from, not toward, the goal. The final deadline is 2029, so this is an interim miss, not a closed verdict.
“Because of this system, there has been an 80% reduction in crime in Punjab, and there are many districts where not a single case is reported for several days.”
Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif (Punjab)
An independent Geo fact-check reviewed Punjab Police data (2024 vs 2025) and found overall crime down about 2%, not 70–80% — with several categories (crimes against persons, narcotics, kidnapping of women) actually rising. An earlier check found reported crime up ~11% in H1 2025. The 70–80% headline is contradicted by the government's own statistics.
Government economic framework · State Bank of Pakistan
FY26 average inflation ran roughly 7%, near the top of the target band — a fair outcome against the budget's ~7.5% aim. But the point-in-time reading re-accelerated to 11.1% by June 2026, outside the 5–7% band (it has since eased for two months). Kept on average; off target at the margin.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif · Uraan plan / FBR
Tax-to-GDP rose about 1.5 points to ~10.6% in FY25 and active filers grew from ~4.5m to ~7.2m — measurable movement. But it remains far from the 13.5% Uraan target and short of the near-term ~11% push, and FY26 revenue growth lagged nominal GDP, implying limited further gains.
Government / provinces, under the IMF EFF programme
Higher agricultural income-tax rates were legislated (the structural benchmark was met), but the IMF's December 2025 review reported revenues below expectations due to implementation and enforcement gaps — agriculture's effective tax rate stayed around 0.3% despite ~a quarter of value added.
Government / Finance & Power ministries, IMF-linked
A Rs1.275tr syndicated bank facility was executed and the end-2025 circular-debt flow target was met. But late-payment surcharges meant the overall stock still climbed to roughly Rs3.4tr (2.7% of GDP) by December 2025 per the IMF — the flow was contained, the debt was not durably eliminated.
“To maintain this momentum, I am pleased to announce the decision of the Government of Pakistan to upgrade the level of its charge d'affaires in Kabul to the level of ambassador.”
Deputy PM & Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar
Pakistan did designate its first ambassador to Kabul since 2021, and Afghanistan reciprocated — the literal commitment was kept. But the stated purpose (better trade, counter-terror cooperation, a 'positive trajectory') did not hold: by October 2025 the two sides fought their deadliest border clashes since 2021 and truce talks in Istanbul failed. Administrative step kept; strategic aim not met.
Deputy PM/FM Ishaq Dar & Finance Minister Aurangzeb (negotiating leads)
A reciprocal deal lowered the US tariff on Pakistani goods to 19% (from a threatened 29%) — lower than rates on India or Vietnam, so the rate commitment materialised. But the outcome that matters, an actual rise in exports to the US, was not yet verifiable by mid-2026, and further tariff talks were still ongoing.
“In a month's time, all landowners will have tube wells converted to solar energy which will completely address their grievances.”
Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti (Balochistan)
By December 2025, over 27,000 of the 30,000 tube-wells (a Rs55bn project) had been converted — roughly 90% of the target. But the promised 'one month' timeline slipped by well over a year. Scale kept; deadline broken. The conversion count is a government/press figure, not independently audited.
Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif (Punjab)
The government cited a 33.2% reduction in average particulate matter and Lahore's 'first AQI improvement since COVID'. Independent monitoring qualifies the 'historic improvement' framing: IQAir repeatedly ranked Lahore among the world's ten most polluted cities through late 2025, and Pakistan was the world's most polluted country by 2025 average PM2.5. A year-on-year improvement may be real, but it rests on government self-assessment and the city remains among the worst globally.
KP government (adviser M. Aslam, under CM Sohail Afridi)
KP released Rs3bn (Nov 2025, atop ~Rs9.65bn earlier) and major hospitals confirmed restoration of free admissions. But the scheme suffered repeated suspensions through 2024–25 when the province fell behind on payments to the insurer — so the promise of uninterrupted universal free treatment was not consistently honoured.
Government / SBP, under the IMF programme
Reserves recovered substantially from the 2023 crisis lows and the SBP reported meeting its FY26 reserve target, underpinning an S&P upgrade to 'B'. One caveat, tracked in the Claim Check ledger: the ~$25.3bn cited by S&P is unreconciled against SBP's own weekly figure — so 'buffer restored', yes; a specific record headline, not confirmed.
Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah (Sindh)
Roughly 1 million of the 2.1 million target homes were completed, with funding secured for the remainder. Unusually for a government programme, it has strong third-party corroboration: the World Bank publicly called the SPHF a 'global model for climate-resilient recovery' (Feb 2026), noting 83% of ownership titles issued to women. Not yet complete, but on track and externally validated.
“a gift to the nation on the occasion of Eid”
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
The announced Rs7.41/unit household cut (and comparable industrial relief) was confirmed and notified by the regulator NEPRA; the national average tariff fell from ~Rs58/unit toward ~Rs48/unit. Kept — though the relief drew on IMF-enabled fiscal space rather than a permanent structural tariff floor.
Government (PM Shehbaz Sharif / Finance Minister Aurangzeb), IMF-linked
After a failed 2024 attempt, a 75% PIA stake was sold to an Arif Habib-led consortium for Rs135bn via a live-televised auction (Dec 2025), with management control transferred on 29 June 2026 — Pakistan's first major privatisation in roughly two decades. Executed, if later and below some early reference-price hopes.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb
The FY26 deficit came in around 3.6% of GDP (reported as a ~21-year low) with a primary surplus of ~3.5% (Rs4.38tr) — both better than the 3.9% deficit / ~2.4% surplus targets. Figures are provisional (Economic Survey / press), pending final audited numbers.
Government FY26 external-stability target
FY26 remittances hit a record $41.6bn (up 8.6% on $38.3bn), beating the ~$39.4bn target — the steadiest support under the external accounts. A government/budget target rather than a personal pledge.
Every office-holder was verified by name as of July 2026, and every commitment carries a dated, citable source with an independent measurement of the outcome where one exists. Verbatim quotes appear only where the exact wording was confirmed; all other commitments are documented targets, not quotations. Where an outcome figure is government-reported and not independently audited, the entry says so.