WORLD PULSE
—:—:— PKT

A data story

The record remittance number has an asterisk

$41.6 billion, an all-time high. Here's the part of the story that headline doesn't tell you — and honestly, the part nobody can currently measure.

Stage 1 of 4

The headline

FY2026, +8.6% YoY

Workers' remittances hit an all-time high in FY2026 — confirmed across multiple independent outlets, a genuine record and a real source of stability for Pakistan's external accounts.

Stage 2 of 4

What was propping it up

annual cost of now-ended incentive schemes

Two incentive programs (TTCIS and the Sohni Dharti Remittance Programme) that paid banks and remitters to route money through formal channels cost the government roughly ₨100-120 billion a year — and both were discontinued on 1 July 2026, at the IMF's request.

Stage 3 of 4

Is there a hawala arbitrage right now?

PKR gap, interbank vs open market

Here's the honest correction to the obvious story: as of July 2026 the gap between the official and open-market rate is narrow — nothing like the 10-20% gaps that drove flows to informal channels during the 2022-23 crisis. The risk from ending incentives is real, but it isn't currently an active exchange-rate arbitrage.

Stage 4 of 4

What nobody can currently measure

informal share of remittances

How much of Pakistan's remittances travel through hawala instead of banks? Despite it being a commonly debated question, no current, credible study puts a number on it. One academic paper found hawala's share falling over 2010-2019 — but nothing recent enough to say what's true today. We're showing this gap honestly rather than inventing a percentage.